The End of The Line?
Copyright, NEOM
Examining the Scaling Back of the Crown Jewel of Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia, 2024
Introduced in April 2016, Saudi Vision 2030 represents a bold stride by the Saudi Arabian government to transform its economy and reshape its global image. Alongside initiatives like the National Transformation Program, the unveiling of NEOM, a futuristic eco-friendly megacity within the Saudi province of Tabuk, stood as a beacon of innovation. Within NEOM, The Line emerged as a visionary concept, promising a departure from conventional urban planning with its car-free, renewable energy-dependent design and prioritization of human well-being over transportation and infrastructure. However, recent revelations paint a sobering picture. Non-public documents related to The Line's development reveal a significant downsizing, casting shadows of uncertainty over its ambitious vision. Concerns surrounding financing and deviations from its initial proposed management raise doubts about the project's feasibility. With a staggering estimated cost of $1.5 trillion, the project grapples with mounting challenges posed by global conflicts and internal turmoil.
Copyright, NEOM
The Line
Initially proposed in 2021, The Line would be built on a footprint of 34 square kilometers, creating around 460,000 jobs, adding $46 billion to the country’s GDP, and ultimately housing 9 million inhabitants—creating a population density of just above 260,000 per square kilometer. Given the lower quality of life often associated with high population densities, how would The Line’s novel approach to urban planning reshape perspectives on this issue?
Density
Manila, Port-au-Prince, Kolkata: three cities, three countries, and three starkly different cultures. What do they have in common? Extremely dense populations. In 2020, Manila (the most densely populated city on the planet) had a density of more than 73,000 people per square kilometer. This density has led to immense struggles with flooding, housing, and mobility. Similar issues are synonymous with cities with high population density, further augmented by mismanagement in underdeveloped countries, which contributes to a decrease in the quality of life for their inhabitants. In Jakarta, with a population density of just under 16,000 people per square kilometer, the city is sinking rapidly due to aggressive groundwater pumping—its main source of drinking water. The Indonesian government has been forced to explore developing an entirely new capital in Borneo. While the main cause of sinking is uncontrolled groundwater extraction, its effects have been exacerbated by the Java Sea’s rising water levels.
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Noting the issues conducive to high population density, it’s also important to recognize these regions’ dependency on antiquated energy sources and foreign involvement. This dependency can perpetuate a cycle of repression. How will NEOM’s novel approach to scalable renewable energy and urban planning mitigate similar issues?
A Paradoxical Shift
It’s no secret how dependent the Saudi economy is on the export of crude oil. As of 2021, crude oil exports made up 70% of the country’s total exports and 53% of total revenue. Controlling 15% of the world’s proved oil reserves, Saudi Arabia boasts the world’s largest crude oil production capacity at nearly 12 million barrels per day.
In early 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, mass sanctions were imposed on Russia’s energy sector. Mainland Europe, previously heavily reliant on Russian crude oil imports, suffered severe economic repercussions as all-out bans on importing Russian crude oil products were implemented. Adding to the strain, OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia and Russia, subsequently introduced crude oil production cuts, driving oil prices per barrel above $85.
Interestingly, this boost in prices has had adverse effects on Saudi’s economy, as the decrease in crude oil production has not bridged the gap for the rise in price per barrel. Despite this perceived reversal, Saudi Arabia's ongoing structural reforms have spurred growth in non-oil sectors—driven by strong domestic demand and private investments. As a result of new laws aimed at promoting entrepreneurship, protecting investors’ rights, and reducing the cost of doing business, the Saudi economy saw investment deals grow by 95% and licenses by 267% in 2022. On a macro level, the Saudi economy saw 2022’s non-oil growth average 4.8%.
Despite these figures, concerns surrounding global economic volatility and management have made foreign investors cautious about the execution of Vision 2030, particularly regarding ambitious projects like NEOM.
If Saudi Arabia successfully constructs this gigaproject and effectively mitigates the aforementioned issues, it could mark a groundbreaking advancement in sustainable development. The project's ambitious scope and innovative approach have the potential to set new standards for ecological and technological integration, demonstrating that large-scale urban development can be both environmentally responsible and economically viable. By overcoming these significant challenges, Saudi Arabia could pave the way for future projects worldwide, showcasing a model of sustainability that balances modern living with environmental stewardship.
